US Market Analysis

The historic growth of the 80+ population is fueling an unprecedented surge in senior housing demand, one that will last for decades to come.

At the same time, the percentage of units under construction is nearing a 21st century low. As the gap between surging demand and increasingly limited supply growth continues to propel occupancy across the country, a generational investment opportunity is emerging. Considering development and construction timelines, proactive stakeholders who position themselves well now will be optimally placed to fill the gap and meet the growing demand.

Key Data Points:

  • By 2050, there will be approximately 16 million “new” 80+ year olds, more than double the number today. By 2030, the number of 80+ year olds is set to grow by more than 30%.
  • Current development rates appear insufficient to meet future demand, creating a supply-demand gap that will further increase current occupancy levels.
  • To meet demand at current penetration rates, senior housing must nearly triple the current development pace and sustain it through 2030.
  • Construction starts as a percentage of inventory in Primary and Secondary Markets was approximately 0.08% in2Q 24below historic lows of .1% last seen following the Great Recession of 2008.
  • Starting in 2025, just under 102,000 units will need to be developed per year to meet the expected demand of 2030 at current penetration rates. In the last 20 years, the maximum number of units developed in a single year is on the order of 50,000.
  • At the current development pace and penetration rates, the industry will need to increase development more than 3.5-fold to bridge the gap and maintain 90% occupancy by 2030.

NIC MAP data is the most accurate, comprehensive and up-to-date data in the sector, with key metrics tracking both the supply and demand drivers of senior housing.

Current Development Pace versus Aggregate New Units Needed

May Need Historic Near-Term Inventory Growth to Keep Pace with Demand

Must Develop at Nearly 2x the Maximum Pace and More Than 3.5x Current Pace For 90% Occupancy in 2030